Independent Project Risk Consultant —
Clearer Decisions, Better Outcomes.

QCRA is a structured analytical process that models the range of possible costs for a project, rather than relying on a single-point estimate. It uses techniques such as Monte Carlo simulation to account for uncertainty in individual cost components and their interdependencies, producing a probability distribution of total project cost. The output — typically a P50, P80 or P90 cost estimate — gives decision-makers a statistically defensible basis for contingency setting and budget approval. QCRA is routinely required on major infrastructure and public sector programmes in the UK, including under HM Treasury and IPA guidance.

QSRA applies the same probabilistic approach to project schedules. Rather than treating task durations as fixed, it models each activity as a range of possible durations, applies risk events that could delay or accelerate the programme, and runs Monte Carlo simulation to produce a probability distribution of completion dates. QSRA is used to understand schedule contingency, identify the critical drivers of delay risk, and produce defensible date commitments at defined confidence levels (e.g. P50, P80).

QCRA focuses on cost: it models uncertainty in project expenditure to produce a probability distribution of out-turn cost. QSRA focuses on time: it models uncertainty in programme activities to produce a probability distribution of completion dates. Both use Monte Carlo simulation as the underlying technique, and both are often conducted together, since cost and schedule risk are closely related — a delayed programme typically incurs additional cost. On major programmes, a combined Quantitative Cost and Schedule Risk Assessment (QCSRA) is standard practice.

An independent project risk consultant works alongside project teams to identify, analyse, and manage uncertainty — without being embedded in the delivery organisation. This independence is valuable for producing credible risk estimates for external scrutiny (e.g. government review, investor reporting, or board approval), for providing an objective challenge to in-house risk assessments, and for bringing specialist techniques that may not exist in the team. Typical engagements include producing QCRA/QSRA models, facilitating risk workshops, reviewing risk registers, developing risk management frameworks, and providing assurance on risk processes.

Monte Carlo simulation works by running the project cost or schedule model thousands of times, each time sampling values for uncertain inputs (durations, costs, risk event probabilities) from their defined probability distributions. The result of each run is recorded, producing a large sample of possible outcomes. Aggregating these results gives a probability distribution of total cost or completion date — showing not just a single estimate but the full range of plausible outcomes and their relative likelihood. This allows meaningful statements like "there is a 75% probability that the project will complete by this date" or "the P80 cost is £Xm".

Value management is a structured, facilitated methodology for maximising the ratio of benefits to resources — essentially ensuring that a project or programme delivers the best possible outcome for the investment. Where risk management focuses on uncertainty and threats (and opportunities), value management focuses on function and purpose: challenging assumptions, exploring alternative approaches, and aligning stakeholders around what actually needs to be achieved. The two disciplines complement each other well and are often applied together on complex projects.

This varies by purpose and programme scale. A focused risk identification workshop for a defined project area typically runs for half a day to a full day. A risk quantification workshop — where the team works through risk distributions or schedule/cost uncertainty ranges — typically takes one to two days. Risk Judgement Training is designed as a half-day session. For large programmes with multiple workstreams, a series of workshops over several days may be needed. All workshops are designed and facilitated to produce structured, actionable outputs rather than simply generating lists.