Risk Judgement Training

Experience shows we are generally overconfident in our abilities to predict future outcomes; for example sales volumes, software development hours for a project or the quantitative impact of risk. Avoid the serious consequences of poor judgements by becoming a better estimator. 

Risk Judgement Training improves the quality of forecasts given by individuals and teams.

Experience shows that people are overly confident in their abilities when providing estimates and judgements. Our Risk Judgement Training helps counter this and provides simple techniques and advice to help people provide better quality forecasts. The training is simple and engaging, does not require any statistical or expert knowledge. 

 

How it works

Training is delivered over a series of 3 or 4 ‘games’ for which points are awarded based on performance in making judgements. These are a series of questions or statements that players are unlikely to know the answer to so must rely on their skills in judgement of the uncertainty involved. Games are reviewed by an expert trainer who provides individual feedback to each player by email after each game to support participants in the development of their skills.  Players receive a dashboard that shows how their performance has improved over the course of the training. The training takes 1 -2 hours (elapsed time) to complete. 

Training Delivery

Individual Training – self paced & online. Games questions are online and answers are handwritten by players and then emailed to the trainer (there is also a fully electronic version however our experience is that the learning experience is enhanced by using a paper based approach).

Group Training – Self Paced & Online. As above however a cohort of players are taken through as a group. Players remain anonymous but their scores are compared with the performance of their peers and the group as a whole. The group training also provides an opportunity for ‘wisdom of the crowd’ and collective forecasting learning experience.

Group Training – Workshop. As above but delivered in a workshop type setting.

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