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Live Ideas

Ideas being actively pursued.

Forecasting Calibration Training

B is a training app to help you Be A Better Expert when estimating and predicting - for instance project costs or the likelihood of a future outcome.

We humans are overconfident in our abilities to predict the future calibration is the process where experts get better at forecasting when they receive feedback on how accurate their predictions have been. Behavioural science research has found that we can all become better forecasters in our professional fields by receiving feedback on  general knowledge predictions. The mobile calibration training app makes use of time that would otherwise be lost such as travelling to hone prediction and judgement skills. The app is an evolution of the calibration training undertaken in workshops.


Currently in development contact us to be involved in the pilot.

Ideas

Previous and unexploited ideas being kept alive as part of the 'knowledge brokering cycle'

'Open Governance' for Publically Funded Infrastructure Projects

Inspiration for this innovation came from observing Crossrail, where it was industry knowledge that the project was in distress, whilst Government seems to have been totally unaware (how much the Project leadership knew is unknown).


Open Project Governance would be website where the public and insiders could predict the completion on projects based on observations (presence of tower cranes etc).

May be part of 'Forecast Club' pilot.

Melting Pot

Melting pot was a repository for project lessons learned based on free text search and key word tags. Mothballed due to lack of interest, most organisations would not invest sufficiently in lessons learnt to make this viable.

Freestyle Risk Database

A risk management database with alternate quantitative methodologies rather than Qualitative Risk Matrices. An early beta version was developed. Initial client was enthusiastic but later cooled, taken to the point of demonstration only

Better Choices

Better choices is an integrated project risk and value model that measured how important uncertainty in preferences were to selecting the right project. This was an early attempt at 'opportunity efficiency' - I would now do this in a different way.

Report Back

report-back.com was an online Monte Carlo analysis engine, users could upload project cost data and would receive a cost forecast pdf by download or email. Reticence about the online aspect, however there was interest in the CASM calculation methodology - the concept lives on as the CASM tool.