Judging Uncertainty - would you like to be a better expert?
Experience shows us that as both teams and individuals, we are generally overconfident in our abilities to predict future outcomes; for example sales volumes, software hours or the impact of risk.
Avoid the serious consequences of poor judgements by becoming a better estimator.
Join one of the next series of seminars. The format is based on a test exercise prior to the event in which you are given individual feedback by email. There is then a one hour training slot and 30+ minutes Q&A.
Our experience is that in project settings between 50% and 80% of risk estimates given by Subject Matter Experts will turn out to be wrong; and around 1 in 15 disastrously so with the actual cost & time being multiples of what was estimated. Poor and biased assessment of uncertainty is one of the reasons for project and business failure and under performance - fortunately there is something that can be done.
Risk Judgement Training is a succinct and interactive learning programme (1 – 2 hours learner time) that aims to help people provide better forecasts, estimates & quantifications. The training is facilitated by an expert and is structured around a series of self-paced general knowledge games with individual feedback after each.
The training makes people aware of their individual estimating styles, strengths and weaknesses. Tools, tips and guidance are given for providing better estimates.
An interactive group seminar (online or on-site for organisations) gives participants opportunity to ask questions. The seminar includes hands-on demonstration of ‘collective wisdom’ and insights into how group dynamics can influence estimates.
The training is gamified to maximise engagement and enhance the learning experience!