White Paper: 'Qualitative Risk: Time for a Rethink'

November, 2011

Qualitiatve RIsk Management and Risk Matrices are widely used tools, but does their use in Project contexts make sense?

White Paper: Crossing the CASM

January, 2012

CASM is a framework for thinking about a complexity in project cost forecasts, supported by calculation methods that provide more realistic forecasts with minimal effort.

Recommendations are made about the treatment of interdependencies whether using CASM or other methods. The appendices explain theory of different methods for quantification of uncertainty, including Monte Carlo analysis.

Creativity Prompt

September, 2018

To prompt people to be creative Richard Wiseman recommends a particular style of modern art in his book 59 Seconds. This is based on research that seeing a piece that evokes ‘sense of unconventionality would sub consciously inspire viewers to be more creative’.
Using the description in the book my designer friend created this graphic. I have as a poster on the wall and use on prompt sheets issued to workshop attendees for problem solving activities. You could also use as a screen saver.

Project Risk Analysis Managers Briefing, Presentation & Notes

Presentation given to stakeholders in client organistions so they are able to effectivly interpret the findings of forecasting exercises.

CASM Monte Carlo Project Cost Tool

This tool facilitates Project cost forecasts usign the approach set out in the Crossing the CASM paper.

Alternate Risk Register Format

This is the risk register format used for client assignements, and optimised for workshop settings. No qualitative risk matrices, uses a simple 'Highest/High/Med/Low' prioritisation instead (over 100 customer exercises). Can also manages quantitave data.

Range Estimator Worksheet

This sheet embodies a simple structure for estimating an uncertain value.

Probability Estimator Worksheet

This sheet provides a simple 'force field method to help arrive at a value for an uncertain probability of likelihood. 

Collective Range Estimation Tool

This spreadsheet processes minimum and maximum estimates from individuals to provide a collective forecast. Rules of Thumb are used to derive the forecast. Also displays the distribution of estimates. 

Simple Project Cost Sensitivity Analysis

Worksheet uses upper and lower values or costs, risks and opportunities (including probabilities) to understand which are most important. 

Can be used with a crowd or collective based approach.

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